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Core Development Trends of the Toy Industry (2025-2026)
1. Breakthrough in consumption boundaries: All-age + emotional value, trendy toys explode
The traditional perception of "exclusive to children" has been broken. Adults aged 18 to 35 have become the core incremental group. Buying toys is no longer just for children, but also for stress relief, collection, emotional companionship and social expression. In 2025, the domestic market size of trendy toys reached 87.97 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 21%, far exceeding the 3.5% growth rate of traditional toys. Jellycat's plush toys, blind boxes, collectible building blocks, and domestic trend IP figurines have become mainstream. Original domestic trend ips have risen rapidly, breaking the monopoly of overseas ips.
2. Deep technological Penetration: AI+ Intelligence +STEAM, from "Play" to "Smart Companion"
AI large models, interaction technologies, and AR/VR have been fully integrated into toys, driving the industry to upgrade from functional to smart companion types: AI dialogue dolls, programming robots, smart early education machines, and AR interactive building blocks are growing rapidly, featuring educational, companion, and entertainment attributes, with significant increases in average transaction value and premium. By 2025, the domestic AI toy market size is expected to reach approximately 29 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 20%, making it the second growth curve in the industry. Meanwhile, STEAM educational and science toys continue to be popular, meeting parents' demands for quality-oriented education.
3. Supply Chain and Overseas Expansion: Resilience First, Market Diversification
China remains the world's largest producer and exporter of toys (accounting for 70% of global production capacity), but its export structure is accelerating its adjustment: traditional markets in Europe and America have seen a decline in their share due to inflation and tariffs, while emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Latin America, and Russia have become new growth poles with a growth rate of over 15%. The thresholds for green and low-carbon development and safety compliance (such as the EU REACH and China's new national standards) are continuously rising, compelling enterprises to upgrade their materials, processes and quality control. The supply chain is transforming from a single centralized layout to a diversified layout of "China + Southeast Asia + Mexico", enhancing its risk resistance capacity.
4. Category and channel differentiation: The strong in niche markets remain strong
The growth rate of traditional plastic and basic plush toys has slowed down and their profits have thinned. High-value-added sectors such as trendy toys, IP licensing, military models, adult collections, intelligent science and education, and national trend cultural and creative products have continued to grow at a high rate. Online live streaming, short videos and private domains have become core channels, while offline experience stores, trendy toy collection stores and IP collaboration scenarios are accelerating their penetration. Channel integration has become the norm.
Improvement of interaction technology: With the rapid development of deep learning, natural language processing and multi-modal interaction technology, the multi-modal model based on the Transformer architecture enables robot toys to achieve more natural and anthropomorphic dialogues,
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